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Estimated Impacts

Hypothesis

Since the coefficient on JSEPA is negative, I hypothesized that the FTA between Japan and Singapore is mostly symbolic and political. While trade has ostensibly declined, I want to capture positive sentiment towards trade and FTAs in general and sentiment between Japan and Singapore.

Sentiment Analysis

Text analysis on New York Times, AP, and Reuters articles between 1990 and 2015 that mention:

1. Japan in the headline, and Singapore in the text

2. Singapore in the headline, Japan in the text

3. Japan in the headline, FTAs in the text

Article Count

Sentiment Analysis

Polarity

Sentiment Analysis Part 2

Japan

Singapore

Control For GDP Growth

1. Japan and Singapore GDP Declines Over Time Prior to the JSEPA

2. Limited Regression using only the Bilateral Pair of Japan and Singapore

3. Created GDP Growth (in percentage terms)

Coefficient